WHAT IT IS
One vivid story — a recovery, a disaster, a transformation — stands in for evidence about what's generally true.
WHY IT WORKS
Stories are how humans naturally learn, and one vivid case outweighs a spreadsheet of statistics in the gut. But one case can't tell you the odds.
HOW TO SPOT IT
- "It worked for me" as the whole argument
- Dramatic before/after with no denominator (how many tried and failed?)
- The story is unverifiable but emotionally perfect
HOW TO DEFUSE IT
Ask 'out of how many?' — one success out of ten is a treatment; one out of ten thousand is a lottery ticket.
ASK YOURSELF
Would I accept this story as proof if it argued the opposite?